"The fifteenth year of Tiberius"
GradeProbable
Luke dates the beginning of John the Baptist's preaching with a historian's care: "in the fifteenth year of the reign of Tiberius Cæsar, Pontius Pilate being governor of Judæa ... Annas and Caiaphas being the high priests, the word of God came unto John" (). His Pilate and Caiaphas fit the window that Josephus and the Pilate inscription give for their terms of office. Counting Tiberius' reign from the death of Augustus in August 14 CE, the fifteenth year is 28/29 CE. Jesus' ministry followed John's, so Luke's date fits well with a crucifixion in 30 or 33.
Probable. On the usual count John began in 28/29 CE. Which crucifixion year this supports depends on the length of Jesus' ministry: about one year favours 30, and about three years favours 33.
Explore the counterarguments
The verse dates John's preaching, not the crucifixion, so it decides between 30 and 33 only through the disputed length of the ministry. Some count Tiberius' years from a supposed co-regency with Augustus beginning about 12 CE, which would put the fifteenth year in 26/27; that reckoning is reported not to be attested in the coins or the historians.