The mustard seed.

How Christianity grew from a handful of followers to about 2.7 billion people, compared with other fast-growing movements. The first three centuries are known only from models, and modern growth from counts.

Reach map Scripture translation Growth

Measured 4Model 1Estimate 1Projection tested 1Finding 1

The first three centuries: members by years since founding

Early Christians (Stark's model)Latter-day Saints (records)

Years since founding on the horizontal axis (Christianity counted from 30 CE, the Latter-day Saints from 6 April 1830). Christianity: Rodney Stark's model, 1,000 members in 40 CE growing 40% a decade (The Rise of Christianity, 1996), not counts. Latter-day Saints: the church's own membership records. On a log scale, a steady growth rate is a straight line.

1,000 to 33.9 million

Christians, 40-350 CE

Stark models 1,000 Christians in 40 CE growing 40% a decade to about 6.3 million by 300 and a majority of the empire by 350.

Model

about 6 million (about 10% of the empire)

Christians around 300 CE

Scholars put Christians at about a tenth of a Roman Empire of about 60 million by around 300 CE.

Estimate

6 to 17.9 million

Latter-day Saints, 1830-2025

From six founding members in 1830 to 17.9 million in 2025, about 43% a decade between 1850 and 1990.

Measured

64 to 267 million by 2080

Stark's 1984 projection of Latter-day Saint growth

Stark projected 64-267 million by 2080. Membership was near his high line in 2010 and near the low line by 2025, as growth slowed from about 5% a year to 1-2%.

Projection tested

558 million to 2.66 billion

Christians worldwide, 1900-2025

Christians grew nearly fivefold in 125 years but held a steady third of the world: 34.5% in 1900, 32.5% in 2025.

Measured

200 million to 2.07 billion

Muslims worldwide, 1900-2025

Muslims grew about tenfold, from about an eighth of the world to about a quarter.

Measured

about 1 million to 704 million

Pentecostals and Charismatics, 1900-2025

The renewal movement grew from under a million to about 700 million, the fastest-growing part of Christianity.

Measured

Is early Christian growth unusual?

A 40%-a-decade rate is high but not unique: a modern movement sustained it for over a century under ordinary conditions.

Finding

← All figures

Christians worldwide, 1900-2025

GradeMeasured

Value: 558 million to 2.66 billion
Source: CSGC (2023)

The Christian case

Christianity is the largest religion in the world. On the Center for the Study of Global Christianity's figures (2023), Christians numbered 558,346,000 in 1900, 1,216,131,000 in 1970, 1,988,770,000 in 2000 and 2,662,979,000 in 2025, nearly five times as many in 125 years. The faith has kept roughly a third of the world's people across the whole period, and it has grown strongly in sub-Saharan Africa. Christians see in this the mustard seed of Jesus' parable, grown into the greatest among herbs.

What the research found

Measured, on the Center's wide definition of "Christian", which gives higher counts than other surveys such as Pew's. The Christian share of the world was 34.5% in 1900, 32.9% in 1970, 32.3% in 2000 and 32.5% in 2025. Christianity's growth has kept pace with the world's population rather than outrun it.

Explore the counterarguments

On Pew's self-identification measure, the Christian share fell about two points between 2010 and 2020, from 31% to 29%, so the two main datasets disagree on the direction since 2000, though neither shows a collapse. Christian identification fell sharply over the same period in Europe, North America and Latin America, mainly as people raised Christian came to identify with no religion. The growth in sub-Saharan Africa has come mainly through births.